Japan’s autumn-colour forecast, updated: Kyoto 11 December, Tokyo 28 November

Update — 12 October 2026: the second forecast, and a second forecaster

The Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) published its second 2026 forecast on 1 October. For red maples it now gives Sapporo 4 November (7 November in the first forecast), Nagano 21 November, Sendai 24 November, Tokyo 28 November (previously 29 November), Hiroshima 28 November, Kanazawa 30 November, Nagoya 2 December, Osaka 4 December, Fukuoka 7 December, Kagoshima 10 December and Kyoto 11 December. Apart from Sapporo and Tokyo, the maple dates for the cities in our original report are unchanged.

For yellow ginkgo the second forecast gives Sapporo 3 November (previously 6 November), Kanazawa 10 November, Nagano 14 November (previously 13 November), Nagoya 17 November, Hiroshima 21 November (previously 20 November), Osaka 24 November, Tokyo 26 November, Kyoto and Kagoshima 27 November, and Fukuoka 28 November (previously 27 November). JMC says its next forecast will follow in early November.

A note on what the dates mean. JMC’s forecast page calls these the best viewing dates and defines each one as the first day on which most of a tree’s leaves have turned colour. Our original report called them “peaks”; treat each date as the point from which the colour is at its best, not as a single day.

A second forecaster, Weathernews, published its own update on 8 October. It measures something different — the period from when about 70 per cent of a viewing spot has coloured until the leaves begin to fall — and it forecasts by viewing spot. Its outlook: spots that normally turn by mid-October are broadly on time, while those that turn later are expected to run a little behind normal because temperatures are staying high. It expects mountain areas such as Nikkō to be at their best from late October, and lowland spots such as Arashiyama in Kyoto from late November. The two forecasters use different methods, so their dates should not be compared directly.

A correction. The original report referred to Diwali-week departures in mid-October. Diwali falls on 8 November in 2026. We have corrected that sentence below: on these forecasts a trip in Diwali week still arrives before the colour in Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka, though it is close to the forecast dates for Sapporo and for mountain areas such as Nikkō. The rest of the original report of 4 September follows unchanged.

The first forecast of the season (report of 4 September)

The Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) released its first 2026 autumn-foliage forecast on 2 September. Time Out Tokyo, which published the city figures on 4 September, lists the predicted peak for red maples (momiji) as: Sapporo 7 November, about 11 days later than the seasonal average; Nagano 21 November; Hiroshima 28 November; Tokyo 29 November, in line with the average; Kanazawa 30 November; Nagoya 2 December; Osaka 4 December; Fukuoka 7 December; Kagoshima 10 December; and Kyoto 11 December.

Yellow ginkgo, which turns earlier, is forecast to peak in Sapporo on 6 November, Kanazawa 10 November, Nagano 13 November, Nagoya 17 November, Hiroshima 20 November, Osaka 24 November, Tokyo 26 November (three days later than average), and Kyoto, Fukuoka and Kagoshima on 27 November. JMC’s next update is due in early October.

How to time a Japan trip around it

The dates matter because departures in mid-October, and those in Diwali week (Diwali is on 8 November in 2026), will arrive before the colour reaches the main cities. On this forecast, the second half of November is the window for Tokyo and the Kantō gardens, and the first fortnight of December for Kyoto and Osaka. Travellers who want colour earlier should look north: Sapporo and Hokkaido peak in the first week of November.

A forecast is a forecast; peaks shift by a week or more with a warm or cold spell, and the temple gardens in Kyoto turn at slightly different times from the street trees. Our Japan guide and November month page cover the practicalities, and our Japan packages can be moved to the dates the October update confirms.

Sources

This report is based on the following published sources. Rules and schedules change — confirm with the issuing authority before you travel.

• Release of 2026 Autumn Foliage Forecast (2nd forecast) — Japan Meteorological Corporation, 01 October 2026
• 紅葉見頃予想を発表 — autumn-foliage viewing forecast — Weathernews, 08 October 2026
• Here’s the first official 2026 forecast for autumn leaves in Japan — Time Out Tokyo, 04 September 2026
• 2026年紅葉・黄葉見頃予想（第1回）を発表 — first 2026 autumn-foliage forecast — Japan Meteorological Corporation, 02 September 2026